Record Bitcoin ETF Inflows Drive Bitcoin Within Reach of All-Time High
By Sophia Vance — Financial analyst & crypto commentator
The floodgates are open again. Last week, U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs booked a net $1.24 billion in fresh capital — 90 % of it aimed squarely at Bitcoin itself. That surge helped the orange coin claw back above $106,000 on June 24, keeping it glued within a single-digit percentage of May’s all-time high at $111,968.
May Wasn’t Just Big — It Was the Biggest
Institutional demand has been accelerating since spring, but May set a new benchmark: $5.23 billion in net inflows, a blistering 76 % jump over April and the largest monthly haul since the ETF class debuted. That tidal wave of cash coincided with Bitcoin’s breakout to its new record price, confirming what seasoned traders already sensed — the ETF bid is now the dominant marginal buyer.
Zoom out and the scale is jaw-dropping. In less than 18 months, the eleven U.S. spot vehicles have amassed over 1.3 million BTC, roughly 6.7 % of the circulating supply, effectively taking that inventory off the open market. When supply throttles meet demand geysers, price fireworks follow.
The BlackRock Effect
A closer look reveals that one name has been driving the convoy. BlackRock’s iShares Bitcoin Trust (IBIT) notched a 19-day unbroken inflow streak this spring, pulling in $356 million on a single day and more than $1 billion over the course of one trading week. IBIT’s consistency matters: it signals that large-ticket allocators — pensions, endowments, sovereign funds — are still in the accumulation phase, not the distribution phase.
Meanwhile, gold ETFs bled capital. Since late April, investors have yanked $3.6 billion from bullion funds while channeling a mirror-image $7 billion into Bitcoin products, flipping the “digital-gold” narrative from theory to practice.
Price Structure: A Tight Coil at Six Figures
Technically, Bitcoin has now spent over 25 consecutive days above $100K — a first in its history. Derivatives agree with the spot story: open interest on futures hovers near $68 billion, while options traders cluster bullish bets around the $110K and $120K strikes for the next expiry.
“Whales are quietly shifting coins to cold storage while retail sentiment is as gloomy as it was during the March wash-out. That’s the cocktail that preceded every major breakout in the past two cycles.” — Sophia Vance
A Macro Backdrop That Finally Cooperates
Yes, the 2024 halving cut new issuance in half, but the macro picture is now adding fuel: cooling U.S. inflation and a Federal Reserve poised to pivot dovish in Q3 are widening the risk-asset runway. At the same time, the White House’s Strategic Bitcoin Reserve — created by executive order in March 2025 — has politicized Bitcoin as an American reserve asset, further legitimizing institutional adoption.
Add a softening dollar and continued outflows from gold, and Bitcoin’s “sound money” narrative resonates well beyond crypto natives. It’s no coincidence that multiple Wall Street houses have revised their 2025 targets north of $150K, while Anthony Scaramucci openly pitches a $200K base case.
What Could Go Wrong?
Short-term, liquidity is thinner during summer months, making sharp pullbacks a feature, not a bug. Options expiries can inject air-pockets below $100K, and any hint of renewed ETF outflows would chill momentum quickly. Regulatory risk is lower than a year ago, but still not zero; an unfriendly SEC ruling on other crypto assets could dent sentiment across the board.
Yet the bigger risk for latecomers is opportunity cost. With ETF platforms hoovering up tens of thousands of coins every month and miners limited to 450 BTC of fresh supply per day, dips are being absorbed with machine-like efficiency.
The Road to New Highs
Here’s my base-case roadmap:
- Break of $112K–$115K on a single hefty ETF inflow day (>$1 billion) — the catalyst could be a central-bank allocation or the next 13F filing season confirming heavyweight pension exposure.
- Price discovery into $125K–$130K as implied volatility spikes but spot liquidity lags.
- First major consolidation around the post-halving cycle reference of $100K, setting a “new floor” — barring a macro shock.
The beauty of the current setup is its reflexivity: higher prices draw headlines, headlines entice more advisors, advisors allocate to ETFs, ETFs withdraw more BTC, rinse and repeat. Absent an exogenous shock, the path of least resistance remains up.
Bottom Line
Record inflows aren’t just a bullish footnote; they’re a structural shift. Bitcoin’s supply is programmatic and shrinking, but demand, thanks to ETFs, is suddenly elastic and global. With the market barely 6 weeks removed from printing a fresh high, the odds favor another breakout before summer ends.
I’m not here to hype — I’m here to read the tape. Right now, the tape says one thing: the biggest pools of capital on the planet are buying Bitcoin hand-over-fist. Betting against that tide has rarely been profitable. Position accordingly, manage risk ruthlessly, and respect the trend.
